India’s defence preparedness stands at a critical inflection point, with mounting pressure from adversarial advancements and strategic gaps in indigenous capabilities. A recent warning by Lt. Gen. H.S. Panag (Retd) has cast a spotlight on the country’s current state of air combat readiness. According to the former army commander, India is currently operating at just 50–60% of the airpower capability it needs to effectively deter threats from adversaries like China and Pakistan.
In a hard-hitting assessment, Gen. Panag argues that without urgent procurement of fifth-generation fighter jets and an accelerated roadmap to evolve the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) into a sixth-generation platform, India risks strategic vulnerability in a rapidly evolving defense environment.
Falling Behind in the Fifth‑Gen Race
India’s AMCA programme has garnered attention as a flagship indigenous project, aimed at building a stealth fifth-generation multirole combat aircraft with supercruise capabilities, low radar signature, and cutting-edge avionics. However, despite significant research and development efforts since the 2010s, the programme is still several years away from operational reality.
The government recently cleared the execution model for AMCA, with prototype production expected by 2028 or 2029, and full operational capability unlikely before 2035. Meanwhile, China has already deployed over 200 Chengdu J-20 stealth fighters, with new variants entering serial production. Pakistan, on the other hand, is reportedly in line to receive the Chinese Shenyang J-31 (J-35), further compounding India’s concerns.
Lt. Gen. Panag’s warning is rooted in this timeline mismatch. “We are already behind in the fifth-generation race,” he cautions. “By the time AMCA is ready, the rest of the world—including our adversaries—will be shifting to sixth-generation capabilities.”
The Case for an Interim Acquisition
To bridge this capability gap, Panag recommends acquiring an interim fifth-generation fighter jet. While the U.S. F-35 Lightning II is a popular candidate, issues such as cost, maintenance logistics, and strategic autonomy make it a complex proposition. Still, India has shown interest in evaluating the platform in recent years.
Other options include collaborative ventures like the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), spearheaded by the UK, Italy, and Japan. This sixth-generation initiative offers India potential access to futuristic propulsion systems, sensor fusion, and manned-unmanned teaming—capabilities crucial to shaping the AMCA Mk-2 and eventual sixth-gen platforms.
Why Sixth-Gen Matters
A true sixth-generation aircraft is not just about improved stealth or speed—it is a networked system designed to dominate in multi-domain warfare. These aircraft will feature:
- AI-driven decision-making
- Directed-energy weapons (lasers, microwave systems)
- Swarm drone control and manned-unmanned teaming
- Hypersonic capabilities
- Quantum-resistant secure communications
Panag urges Indian defense planners to ensure the AMCA is not just a catch-up fifth-gen effort. Instead, it should serve as a stepping stone toward a fully indigenous sixth-generation platform—one that incorporates modular upgrades and future-ready design elements from its inception.
Where India Stands Today
India’s current fighter fleet comprises a mix of 4th-generation aircraft like the Su-30MKI, Mirage 2000, and MiG-29, along with the indigenous Tejas LCA Mk-1. While upgrades are ongoing, none of these platforms can match the stealth, networking, and electronic warfare capabilities of true fifth- or sixth-generation fighters.
The sanctioned squadron strength for the Indian Air Force (IAF) is 42, but current levels hover around 31, with several aircraft nearing retirement. Even with new inductions like the Tejas Mk-1A and upcoming AMCA, projections suggest India may reach only 35–36 squadrons by 2035, far short of what’s required for two-front preparedness.
This quantitative shortfall is compounded by qualitative disadvantages, especially in stealth, beyond-visual-range (BVR) combat, and air dominance roles.
Strategic Ramifications
If India fails to match the stealth capabilities of its adversaries, its air dominance will be seriously undermined in any future conflict scenario. In a recent military exercise (referred to as “Operation Sindoor”), observers noted that India’s ability to project strength and maintain escalation dominance was impaired by outdated equipment and lack of a clear strategic posture.
Panag stresses that such shortcomings weaken deterrence—both politically and militarily. A well-equipped air force, capable of deploying stealth and next-gen systems, is not just about winning wars; it’s about preventing them from happening.
What Needs to Be Done
1. Immediate Procurement of 5th‑Gen Fighters
India should fast-track the evaluation and procurement of interim fifth-gen jets—be it via foreign military sales (FMS) or limited joint production under Make-in-India.
2. AMCA Fast-Tracking and Modularization
The AMCA must follow a spiral development model—AMCA Mk-1 as a foundational 5th-gen aircraft, and Mk-2 or Mk-3 incorporating sixth-gen upgrades. Key partnerships for engine tech (e.g., Rolls-Royce, GE, Safran) must be finalized soon.
3. R&D and Industry Ecosystem
India’s public-private defence industrial base must ramp up investment in AI, composite materials, electronic warfare, and autonomous drones. The creation of a dedicated 6th-gen R&D taskforce—possibly under DRDO or a joint command—could centralize focus and funding.
4. Regional and Global Partnerships
India must explore deeper collaboration in programmes like GCAP or the Franco-German-Spanish Future Combat Air System (FCAS). Such tie-ups not only give access to top-tier tech but also reduce the time-to-market for domestic variants.
A Pivotal Decade Ahead
Lt. Gen. Panag’s concerns are not just cautionary—they are prescriptive. He calls for a bold pivot in India’s defence planning: to not merely catch up, but to leap ahead. As global airpower doctrine moves into its sixth-generation era, India must restructure its ambitions, accelerate indigenous capabilities, and bridge immediate gaps with smart acquisitions.
This is not just about fighter jets. It’s about securing India’s place as a regional and global power in a world where air superiority is the cornerstone of deterrence, diplomacy, and dominance.